Investors need to carefully assess country-specific risks. 'This is especially true of a market that is less transparent than the US.'
'Falling labour participation rate is common in the ageing populations of the developed world.' 'But India is a country with a young population.' 'It is imperative that the labour participation increases.' 'We need a larger labour force to increase our per capita income level,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
Nearly 490 million people of working age are outside the bounds of India's unemployment assessments. A decrease in the unemployment rate could signal economic growth, but could just as well mean that people have given up looking for work. A revealing excerpt from Tata Sons Chairman N Chandrasekaran and Tata Chief Economist Roopa Purushothaman's Bridgital Nation: Solving Technology's People Problem.
'There are 725,000 Indians here without proper papers. They are subject to deportation immediately under this (Trump's immigration plan). Immediately!' 'They want to prevent new immigration, get the people who are already here out of here, and only allow population increases in the white population.'
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
'Over the next 20 years, we would be adding almost 10 million people to the workforce every year!' 'And we won't be able to give employment to even 2 million out of the 10 million every year.' 'Don't forget, it keeps adding every year.'
'The China opportunity, the digital opportunity and the end of geography opportunity are the three pieces of luck India got due to Covid.'
'These are the two core skill sets that are required for any job, in any profession.'
Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar's remarks on Pakistan sparked a political row on Friday, with his party quick to dissociate itself from the comments while the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party latched on to them, accusing the Congress of being an apologist for Pakistan and the terrorism emanating from its soil.
A land-owning class, the Jats are a powerful community and account for 28 per cent of Haryana's population. The time, they believe, has now come for them to take revenge.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday congratulated President-elect Donald Trump on his election victory and called for China and the United States to find the right way to manage the differences by strengthening dialogue and communication.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge vowed to fight for the restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, asserting that he would remain active in politics until Prime Minister Narendra Modi is ousted from power.
Employment in India saw a V-shaped recovery after being adversely impacted between April and June 2020 during the Covid lockdown and during April-June 2021, when the second wave struck, said Krishnamurthy V Subramanian, former chief economic advisor, in a paper released on Friday. Subramanian is now serving as executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From the official survey data of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the paper titled 'Employment in India: Data Sources, Facts, and Trends' showed that both worker-population ratio (WPR) and labour force participation rate (LFPR) were higher, while the unemployment rate was lower during October-December 2022 when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019.
Agnipath offers jobs to youngsters between 17.5 years and 23 years of age. The unemployment rate in this age group has risen from around 23% in 2017 to over 50% since 2020. Every second person who is looking for employment in this age group is unemployed, explains Mahesh Vyas.
'80% of the rural and urban population don't have enough purchasing power.'
'Elections are fought to win.' 'In our party, the leadership takes the final decision, and our leaders are very clear about it.'
In the past 12 months, since September 2020, the net cumulative increase in employment has been just 44,483. This is negligible -- just 0.04 million on a base of over 400 million jobs, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Fear of a recession in the US due to rising unemployment has added to the concerns of India's IT services sector, which was seeing some growth returning after Q1FY25 results. The Nifty IT closed 3.26 per cent down, as major IT services companies' stock value fell. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India's largest IT services firm, saw its stock price fall 4 per cent during intraday trading.
The quality of employment has deteriorated in 12 of the 21 major states and Union Territories, as the proportion of workers in regular or salaried jobs declined between July 2022 and June 2023 compared to the previous year, according to a Business Standard analysis of the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the National Statistical Office. Assam experienced the most significant decline in the share of workers in salaried work, dropping by 8.7 percentage points to 10.8 per cent in the July 2002-June 2023 period from 19.5 per cent in the July 2021-June 2022 period. This was followed by Delhi (6.2 percentage points), Uttarakhand (5.2 percentage points), and Chhattisgarh (1.6 percentage points).
'Investors with foreign currency-denominated goals, such as foreign education or foreign travel, should go for US equity funds.'
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
'In the new coalition government, India's reform agenda may prioritise job creation and factor market reforms.'
Buoyancy in the real estate sector along with improved construction activities created jobs and facilitated the return of migrant workers to cities, the Economic Survey for 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday said. This assumes significance in view of loss of jobs due to lockdown restrictions imposed in various parts of the country from time to time amid different waves of pandemic since March 2020. The survey points towards sustained recovery in the economic activities during 2022-23 fiscal year.
SP president Akhilesh Yadav has advised party workers, leaders, office bearers and TV panellists to refrain from debating on communal issues during discussions on TV channels, party's national secretary Rajendra Chaudhary said.
The state's revenue receipts might not afford various freebies announced by the parties, unless revenue deficit and hence fiscal deficit is widened.
It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
'No political party can antagonise Ambedkarite voters, particularly the neo-Buddhists.'
The US economy added 160,000 jobs in April, extending the longest streak of private-sector job growth on record.
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
In nearly 100 seats, the BJP stands almost no chance of winning. In 200 seats, it is a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress where the BJP has an upper hand. In 243 seats, the BJP is pitted against regional parties and it is not going to be easy. That is why 400 seats may end up as a pipe dream, states Ramesh Menon, author of Modi Demystified: The Making of a Prime Minister.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) slim majority in Lok Sabha may delay more far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms that could impede progress on fiscal consolidation, Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday. NDA securing a majority in the general elections will give a historic third term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India. "We expect policy continuity, especially with regards to budgetary emphasis on infrastructure spending and boosting domestic manufacturing, to support robust economic growth.
According to NSSO, more than half of India's working-age population is out of labour force. In 2017-18, the youth unemployment rate was in the range 13.6-27.2 per cent.
'The rise in unemployment, underemployment, discouraged workers and job insecurity is likely to continue, with very adverse consequences for the nation's economic well-being and social cohesion,' warns Shankar Acharya.
The most publicized measure of U.S. unemployment tells only part of the story.
'The economy needed 3 or 4 major fixes. The major one was, of course, the direct tax structure, but we ended up complicating the existing convoluted tax structure,' says M R Venkatesh, chartered accountant and lawyer.
Of the 3,893,149 registered applicants on the MP Rojgar portal, only 21 individuals have been successfully placed in government and semi-government positions since April 2020.
The markets, at this point, have rallied on the view that the Fed will not budge from the zero-bound as long as inflation remains subdued
This would give BJP the chance to explore Constitutional options for government formation if there is no clear-cut mandate, explains Sheela Bhatt.
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